North American Government
In the evaluation of technician of the government, trend will continue being of appreciation of the Real and the movement can last until 2010 middle, when the economy would enter in phase of frank recovery and the electoral campaign would be to the full load (what always it produces some exchange depreciation in Brazil). The maximum that the government would obtain, with the combination of little interests and more reserves, would be a reduction in the speed of valuation of the currency. The appreciation of the exchange if must to a conjunction of factors that little depend on the action of the Brazilian government: the depreciation of the North American dollar front the too much currencies; the recovery of the international prices of commodities; a lesser aversion to the risk. In the technician evaluation official, the exchange tax will be able to arrive at the house of R$ 1,80 this year, if a small part of the volume of money in the world to continue come for the domestic market. If it does not cogitate to increase tributes, at least for now, nor any another heterodox measure, as the one imposition forty days for the dollars that to enter the country.
In the passed year, before the global crisis, R$ 1,90 it would not be a necessarily bad tax for the foreign commerce of the country. But the world, today, is not comparable to the world daily pay-crisis. It had a very strong fall of the level of economic activity in the main economies and the competition is not incited. The action of the exporters the valuation of the Real forced the exporters to cut the discountings with which they tried to attract the customers and to dribble the global crisis. With the dollar below of R$ 2, the companies had come back behind in new tables of prices and contracts start to be cut.